Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4974
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
OO 4974 · MRY → PHX
departs 4:28 PM PT · arrives 6:29 PM MT
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 18%
Thu 10/8 21%
Sat 10/10 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave MRY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
MRY is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MRY (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0 mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.