Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4978
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
OO 4978 · FAT → PHX
departs 9:33 AM PT · arrives 11:25 AM MT
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 11%
Thu 10/8 13%
Sat 10/10 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave FAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
FAT is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FAT
Weather at each end
FAT (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.