Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5865
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
OO 5865 · TVC → ORD
departs 5:47 PM ET · arrives 6:04 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 41%
Thu 10/8 37%
Sat 10/10 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±3 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave TVC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 34% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
Weather at each end
TVC (origin)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.