PT 5807 · PHL → MDT

departs 5:51 PM ET · arrives 6:45 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at MDT more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MDT?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MDT (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

PT 5807 · PHL → MDT

Odds over time

How late will it get to MDT?