PT 5949 · PHL → ORF

took off 2:01 PM ET · landed 2:41 PM ET (scheduled 1:54 PM ET → 3:07 PM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to ORF?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ PHL is busy at that time

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORF (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

PT 5949 · PHL → ORF

Odds over time

How late did it get to ORF?