PT 5953 · PHL → ROC

departs 1:17 PM ET · arrives 2:46 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ROC?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 1pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ PHL is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ROC (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

PT 5953 · PHL → ROC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ROC?