PT 6133 · ILM → PHL

departs 3:23 PM ET · arrives 5:09 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

ILM (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

PT 6133 · ILM → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?