QX 2141 · SEA → BZN

departs 6:57 AM PT · arrives 9:45 AM MT

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at BZN more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BZN?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at SEA that day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ SEA is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

BZN (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QX 2141 · SEA → BZN

Odds over time

How late will it get to BZN?