QX 2187 · PHX → SAN

departs 7:25 PM MT · arrives 8:51 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QX 2187 · PHX → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?