Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2230
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6 Tomorrow
QX 2230 · SEA → MSO
departs 10:08 AM PT · arrives 12:36 PM MT
Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 16h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSO more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
1.1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at MSO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSO?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10am departures from SEA are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi forecast at SEA that day
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSO
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
MSO (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.