QX 2270 · PAE → SNA

departs 8:07 AM PT · arrives 10:59 AM PT

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SNA?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SNA is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at PAE that day

↑ QX's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA

↓ 8am departures from PAE are usually not late

Weather at each end

PAE (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

SNA (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QX 2270 · PAE → SNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SNA?