Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2362
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6 Tomorrow
QX 2362 · PAE → SFO
departs 6:05 PM PT · arrives 8:20 PM PT
Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 24h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
1.4d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave PAE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PAE (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.