Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1008 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

UA 1008 · ORD → SBA

departs 10:06 AM CT · arrives 12:34 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 11:00 PM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SBA?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SBA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility0.6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1008 · ORD → SBA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SBA?