Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1076 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

UA 1076 · TPA → DEN

departs 4:04 PM ET · arrives 6:00 PM MT

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.9 in of rain forecast at TPA that day

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.92 in

DEN (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1076 · TPA → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?