Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1284 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

UA 1284 · ORD → JAX

departs 3:53 PM CT · arrives 7:22 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 2:00 AM ET · 63h before departure

Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JAX?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
8%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 32 kt, cloud base down to 300 ft, 1.9 in of rain forecast at JAX that day

↑ 3pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ JAX usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JAX (destination) Gusts32 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility5 mi Precip1.89 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1284 · ORD → JAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to JAX?