Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1312 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

UA 1312 · IAH → TPA

departs 6:10 PM CT · arrives 9:29 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 1:00 AM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.8 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ 6pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling2,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.82 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1312 · IAH → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?