Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1433 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

UA 1433 · MGA → IAH

departs 1:12 PM CST · arrives 5:55 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MGA

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Other factors

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MGA (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

IAH (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1433 · MGA → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?