Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1528 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

UA 1528 · IAH → STL

departs 8:17 PM CT · arrives 10:41 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 56h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

STL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1528 · IAH → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?