Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1845 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

UA 1845 · SFO → RNO

departs 10:51 AM PT · arrives 11:57 AM PT

Forecast issued Sun 4:00 AM ET · 58h before departure

Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RNO?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from SFO are often late

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Visibility down to 0.7 mi forecast at SFO that day

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility0.7 mi Precipnone

RNO (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1845 · SFO → RNO

Odds over time

How late will it get to RNO?