Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1891 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

UA 1891 · DEN → PNS

departs 11:24 AM MT · arrives 3:22 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 49h before departure

Arrive at PNS more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PNS?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at PNS that day

↑ 11am departures from DEN are often late

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PNS (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1891 · DEN → PNS

Odds over time

How late will it get to PNS?