Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1905 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

UA 1905 · SFO → STL

departs 12:43 PM PT · arrives 6:38 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 58h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Arrivals into STL at that hour are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Visibility down to 0.7 mi forecast at SFO that day

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility0.7 mi Precipnone

STL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1905 · SFO → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?