Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1954 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

UA 1954 · RNO → SFO

departs 5:53 AM PT · arrives 7:11 AM PT

Forecast issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 69h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

2% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
97%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ RNO is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 11% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

RNO (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts3 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility1 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1954 · RNO → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?