Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2401 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

UA 2401 · ORD → BOS

departs 1:23 PM CT · arrives 4:54 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 AM ET · 59h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BOS (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2401 · ORD → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?