Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2429 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6 Tomorrow

UA 2429 · SFO → YVR

departs 6:39 PM PT · arrives 9:12 PM PDT

Forecast issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 27h before departure

Arrive at YVR more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YVR?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility5 mi Precipnone

YVR (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2429 · SFO → YVR

Odds over time

How late will it get to YVR?