Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2481 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

UA 2481 · MCO → ORD

departs 2:25 PM ET · arrives 4:43 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 AM ET · 59h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±8 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.8 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day

↑ 2pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.88 in

ORD (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2481 · MCO → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?