Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 254 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

UA 254 · ORD → CID

departs 9:45 PM CT · arrives 10:59 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at CID more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CID?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CID (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 254 · ORD → CID

Odds over time

How late will it get to CID?