Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2654 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

UA 2654 · ORD → MCO

departs 2:42 PM CT · arrives 6:22 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 1:00 AM ET · 63h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±11 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.9 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↑ 2pm departures from ORD are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.86 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2654 · ORD → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?