Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 276 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

UA 276 · LAX → MRY

departs 12:55 PM PT · arrives 2:16 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 59h before departure

Arrive at MRY more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MRY?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from LAX are often late

↑ Arrivals into MRY at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 17% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

MRY (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 276 · LAX → MRY

Odds over time

How late will it get to MRY?