Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 280 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

UA 280 · PHX → DEN

departs 3:25 PM MT · arrives 6:13 PM MT

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 49h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 3pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 280 · PHX → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?