Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 281 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

UA 281 · BNA → IAH

departs 6:13 AM CT · arrives 8:40 AM CT

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

6% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
94%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ IAH is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 18% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 281 · BNA → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?