Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 3930 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

UA 3930 · SFO → IAH

departs 12:39 PM PT · arrives 6:40 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 49h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Visibility down to 0.8 mi forecast at SFO that day

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility0.8 mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 3930 · SFO → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?