Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 398 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6

UA 398 · BNA → ORD

departs 10:25 AM CT · arrives 12:22 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 398 · BNA → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?