Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 825 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 6 Tomorrow

UA 825 · NRT → SPN

departs 8:59 PM JST · arrives 1:47 AM ChST

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at SPN more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±3 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SPN?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,200 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at SPN that day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at NRT

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Other factors

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

NRT (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

SPN (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.70 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 825 · NRT → SPN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SPN?