UA 864 · GUM → NRT

departs 1:00 PM ChST · arrives 4:08 PM JST

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at NRT more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to NRT?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at GUM

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at NRT

Weather at each end

GUM (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility7.66667 mi Precip0.23 in

NRT (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 864 · GUM → NRT

Odds over time

How late will it get to NRT?