Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1039
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
WN 1039 · MCO → TYS
departs 11:24 AM ET · arrives 1:02 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at TYS more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TYS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at TYS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to TYS?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.9 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
Other factors
↑
11am departures from MCO are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TYS
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.86 in
TYS (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.