Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 106
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
WN 106 · MCO → MDW
departs 5:00 PM ET · arrives 6:45 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
40%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
40%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.2d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.9 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
5pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCO is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.78 in
MDW (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.