Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1101
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
WN 1101 · BWI → TPA
departs 7:02 AM ET · arrives 9:33 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Mon 10/5 21%
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 5%
Thu 10/8 10%
Fri 10/9 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.9 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
This flight has been late 56% of the time recently
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 2,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.93 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.