Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1103
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
WN 1103 · BWI → TPA
departs 11:09 AM ET · arrives 1:36 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 6:00 PM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 7%
Fri 10/9 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.36 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.