Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1149
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
WN 1149 · TPA → STL
departs 3:24 PM ET · arrives 4:45 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±3 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.1d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.9 in of rain forecast at TPA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Other factors
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.56 in
STL (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.