Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1196
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
WN 1196 · BWI → VPS
departs 12:11 PM ET · arrives 1:24 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 6:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at VPS more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at VPS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at VPS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to VPS?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at VPS that day
↑
Other factors
↑
12pm departures from BWI are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
VPS (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.36 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.