Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1231
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
WN 1231 · SFO → LAS
departs 5:39 PM PT · arrives 7:11 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±5 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 35% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 0.8 mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.