Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1268
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
WN 1268 · MCO → RSW
departs 6:48 PM ET · arrives 7:37 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at RSW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to RSW?
On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.9 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
6pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at RSW that day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.78 in
RSW (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.27 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.