Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1365
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
WN 1365 · ROC → MCO
departs 1:05 PM ET · arrives 3:42 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 9:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±8 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave ROC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
This flight has been late 39% of the time recently
↑
Other factors
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ROC
Weather at each end
ROC (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.66 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.