Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1472
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
WN 1472 · SAN → MSY
departs 8:42 AM PT · arrives 2:19 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↑
Arrivals into MSY at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
WN's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 3 mi Precip none
MSY (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.