Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1517
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
WN 1517 · MSY → TPA
departs 8:19 AM CT · arrives 11:03 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 4%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
3.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.9 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↓
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MSY (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.93 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.