Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 177
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
WN 177 · BUF → MCO
departs 2:28 PM ET · arrives 5:04 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±8 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.1d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Other factors
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BUF
Weather at each end
BUF (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.54 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.