Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 183
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
WN 183 · MCO → STL
departs 6:05 PM ET · arrives 7:32 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±8 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.8 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
6pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.78 in
STL (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.