WN 1981 · HNL → OGG

departs 2:05 PM HT · arrives 2:57 PM HT

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OGG?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ OGG is prone to delays

↑ 2pm departures from HNL are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ This flight has been late 7% of the time recently

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

OGG (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1981 · HNL → OGG

Odds over time

How late will it get to OGG?