Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2086
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
WN 2086 · ITO → HNL
departs 6:45 PM HT · arrives 7:50 PM HT
Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
5%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
5%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
4.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Leave ITO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at HNL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HNL?
On time or early
95%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Other factors
↓
ITO usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL
Weather at each end
ITO (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
HNL (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 3,933 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.