Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 217
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
WN 217 · MCO → AUS
departs 1:22 PM ET · arrives 2:54 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.1d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.9 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
Other factors
↑
1pm departures from MCO are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
WN's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.78 in
AUS (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.